February 2022, study conducted by Trocando Fraldas with more than 7,500 men and women between January 17 and 24, 2022: The arrival of Omicron in Brazil, as well as its rapid spread, is the main reason for the second year of negative impact on one of the world's largest popular festivals. With this in mind, Brazilian capitals, as well as the Federal District, took action to cancel or suspend carnival celebrations this year due to the Covid-19 pandemic.

In Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo, for example, street carnival was suspended, while the samba school parades were rescheduled for the Tiradentes holiday in April.

It is well known that Carnival is an event which, due to its characteristics of large crowds and long periods of gathering, creates the ideal conditions for the incidence of COVID-19 to thrive. Experts also emphasize that the festival involves close interpersonal contact, making it difficult to avoid viral transmission.

It is in this complex scenario that the fear of contracting the virus is heightened. And it's not surprising, since the world as we knew it has changed dramatically since 2019. With so many deaths caused by Covid-19 and the need for numerous restrictions, the damage was so great that there is even a term to describe the fear of the virus and its consequences, "coronaphobia." As the name suggests, it is a phobia resulting from the situations brought about by the pandemic, causing anxiety.

And in our most recent study, we were also able to identify this fear, since 89% of the people who participated in the survey stated that they would be afraid of catching the virus due to the Carnival crowds. When it comes to responses by gender, 74% of men reported this fear, compared to 90% of women.

Are you or would you be afraid of catching COVID during Carnival crowds?

 
 

To go or not to go?

Since the Omicron variant of COVID-19 spread throughout Brazil, there has been a considerable increase in the number of cases and deaths related to the disease nationwide. Omicron was detected in South Africa at the beginning of November 2021, and research has already shown its spread to be 70 times greater than the Delta variant.

Even so, our study found that 12% of people who took part in the survey would attend the celebration if it were held. When responses were analyzed by age, it was found that those who would attend the celebration are mostly in the 18 to 24 age group, at 16%. The number drops by three percentage points, to 13%, among those aged 50 or older.

Would you go to Carnival if it wasn't canceled?

 
 
  • In the age group 45 to 49 years, 15% said they would go to Carnival if it was not canceled.
  • 10% of pregnant women who participated in the survey said they would have gone to the festivities if they had not been suspended.
  • In Goiás and the Federal District, only 7% expressed a desire to participate in Carnival festivities. The difference was minimal compared to Santa Catarina and São Paulo, with 8%.
  • Meanwhile, Alagoas, Piauí, and Maranhão lead the ranking of those who would attend the celebration, with at least 19%.

Cancellation

Since the end of 2021, experts have been meeting to discuss, once again, the topic of Carnival in Brazil, especially with the emergence of the new variant, reaffirming that because COVID-19 is a respiratory disease transmitted from person to person, the spread of the virus will be even more intense the greater the crowding and the lower the adherence to protective measures.

As a result, the regions began to deliberate about the infeasibility of holding the festival. In several places, such as Salvador (BA) and Recife (PE), the Momo festivities were canceled with no decision about holding the festival at a later date.

In our study, 93% of respondents said they were in favor of canceling. The biggest show of support for suspension was seen in the 30 to 34 age group, with 96%. It is also worth noting that in our study 80% of men agreed with the cancellation, compared to 93% of women.

  • In Goiás, 99% were in favor of canceling the celebration, compared to 78% in Acre.
  • Piauí and Espírito Santo tied at 88% in terms of being in favor of no celebration taking place in the country.
  • In Rio de Janeiro, 90% were in favor of suspending the event.
  • São Paulo and Paraná agreed, with 95% of participants supporting the cancellation of the festival.

Rate of Brazilian women who would be afraid of contracting COVID-19 in Carnival crowds, by state

 

Ranking of states where Brazilian women would participate in Carnival if it had not been canceled

  • 1.Alagoas
  • 2.Maranhão
  • 3.Piauí
  • 4.Roraima
  • 5. Rio Grande do Norte
  • 6.Ceará
  • 7.Rio de Janeiro
  • 8.Tocantins
  • 9.Amazonas
  • 10.Amapá
  • 11.Espírito Santo
  • 12.Pará
  • 13.Rondônia
  • 14.Paraíba
  • 15.Pernambuco
  • 16.Sergipe
  • 17.Acre
  • 18.Bahia
  • 19.Rio Grande do Sul
  • 20.Minas Gerais
  • 21.Mato Grosso
  • 22.Paraná
  • 23.Mato Grosso do Sul
  • 24.São Paulo
  • 25.Santa Catarina
  • 26.Federal District
  • 27.Goiás

Research Method

The study had nationwide coverage and was conducted with over 7,500 women between January 17 and 24, 2022. The data collection method was an online questionnaire form.

The following questions were addressed:

  • Are you in favor of canceling Carnival due to the pandemic this year?
  • Would you go to Carnival if it was not canceled?
  • Are you or would you be afraid of catching COVID during Carnival crowds?

To compare results between regions and states, affirmative answers were counted numerically, 1 for "yes" and 0 for "no." Some questions, in order to obtain more qualitative results, were designed with more options.