Study: Pension Reform and Its Impact on Family Planning

There is no doubt about which topic dominates the public discussion at the start of 2018 – will the pension reform happen or not? While the government and opposition exchange arguments and fight for votes, the public's opinion matters little. Who approves or disapproves of the reform and already feels its impacts? If it is approved, it will certainly have behavioral impacts because it may be necessary to work longer to secure retirement. This can directly affect family planning, which may prioritize work over having children or vice versa.

To find answers to these questions and the perception of fairness between generations, Trocando Fraldas conducted a survey with over 16,000 users, mostly women (15,000), of its portal across Brazil between January 5 and 16, 2018, through a questionnaire. Participants filled it out spontaneously, also indicating their age group, gender, and place of residence to make comparisons between regions and states possible.

Questions

The following questions were asked:

  • Do you think pension reform is necessary?
  • Will the pension reform negatively affect you?
  • Who suffers the most from the reform?
  • Which generation will suffer the most from the reform?
  • Do you have child(ren)?
  • Would the pension reform have changed your plans to have children?
  • How would it have changed?
  • Do you still intend to have children?
  • Does the pension reform influence this decision?

Results

For comparison between regions, states, and capitals, the answers to affirmative questions were converted into numbers, 1 for “Yes” and 0 for “No”. This allowed averages to be calculated, which are the basis for various charts and rankings in the results below.

Need for Reform

  • 58% of Brazilians consider the pension reform unnecessary
  • Disapproval does not differ between genders or between people with or without children
  • There are differences between age groups, with disapproval higher among those aged 25 to 34, especially those who no longer want children
  • The age group probably least affected by the reform, those over 50 years old, has the highest disapproval rate
  • In the North region, support for the reform is considerably higher at 45%, compared to the Northeast with the lowest approval rate of 36%
  • In Rondônia, Santa Catarina, and Amapá, almost half the population supports the reform, while less than a third do in Rio Grande do Norte, the Federal District, and Paraíba
  • In Florianópolis, approval reaches 64%, followed by Porto Velho with 58%, and in Teresina, Curitiba, Cuiabá, and São Paulo, there are still more people in favor than against
  • Northeastern capitals like Aracaju (32%), João Pessoa, Recife, and Salvador (all 36%) show the least support
 
Ranking of Support for Pension Reform – by State
1.Rondônia
2.Santa Catarina
3.Amapá
4.Amazonas
5.Roraima
6.São Paulo
7.Mato Grosso
8.Espírito Santo
9.Pará
10.Paraná
11.Rio de Janeiro
12.Piauí
13.Mato Grosso do Sul
14.Goiás
15.Rio Grande do Sul
16.Alagoas
17.Ceará
18.Minas Gerais
19.Maranhão
20.Sergipe
21.Tocantins
22.Pernambuco
23.Acre
24.Bahia
25.Paraíba
26.Federal District
27.Rio Grande do Norte

Negative Personal Impact

  • 3 out of 5 people feel negatively affected by the pension reform
  • While younger people and those over 45 fear less negative consequences, fear is higher for the population aged 30 to 39, with two thirds affected
  • Compared to men, 9% more women report negative impacts from the reform, which may be attributed to a shorter possible contribution period when they have children
  • The difference between people with and without children is also considerable, at 6%, leading to the same conclusion about the lack of possibility to contribute to INSS
  • In the Northeast, fear of undesired consequences is higher at 64% and lower in the North at just 56%
  • Sergipe, Tocantins, and Rio Grande do Norte lead the fear ranking with more than 70%, while only 44% in Acre and 5 out of 9 people in Rondônia, Amazonas and Mato Grosso share this feeling
  • Three quarters of the residents of Aracaju and Natal believe the reform is not advantageous for them, followed by Palmas, Salvador and Brasília with still over 70%
  • Only 56% of people in Southern capitals expect retirement problems
 

Who suffers
the most
from the reform?

 

Which generation
will suffer
the most from
the reform?

 

Desire to Change Family Planning in the Past

  • 48% of people would have changed their family planning in the past knowing the pension reform would happen
  • Mainly younger age groups, people with children, and those who no longer want children now would have changed something in the past
  • More than half of the states in the North and Northeast, led by Sergipe, Roraima, Alagoas and Amazonas, would have changed their plans to have children in the past
  • The reform would have had less impact in all southern states and Mato Grosso do Sul where 6 in 10 people would not change anything
  • In Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo, and Brasília, between 46 and 48% would change if they could, and in Teresina, only 1 in 3
  • A certain change for the past: parents would not have more children; only 8% state this, while 29% would have wanted fewer children due to the reform
  • The biggest impact related to the timing of having children is not as evident, but people aged 30 to 49 would have preferred to have children earlier than they did
  • While women under these circumstances would have preferred to have children earlier, men would have preferred to wait longer
  • Those who still want children now also wish they could have had them earlier rather than now
 

Future Family Planning

  • 57% of Brazilians will change their plans to have children due to the pension reform, among them 64% of men
  • Only in the South, with 50%, will the impact be smaller
  • In Teresina, Curitiba, and Porto Alegre, less than half are affected, followed by Palmas, Brasília, and Goiânia
  • The capitals most affected will be São Luís and Rio Branco, with 7 out of 10, followed by Salvador, Natal, and João Pessoa with 63%
  • Among those who consider the reform in their family planning, more than half will reduce the number of children they intend to have
  • For those who still wanted children and no longer do, the pension reform is the main reason
  • Young people aged 18 to 24 influenced by the reform will not forgo having children but say they want to have them later and disproportionately fewer children compared to other ages
  • Above 30 years old, less than half see significance in future family planning because they have generally already completed it

The pension
reform
influences
future family
planning?